The most important trends in electric vehicles and mobility in 2021 and what to watch out for in 2022!

In this article, IDTechEx analysts take a look back at the key events and trends in the world of future mobility over the past year - and what to expect in 2022. If you've heard anything about electric vehicles this year, it's likely that Tesla has achieved tech giant status. In November 2021, Tesla exceeded its market cap of $ 1000.000.000.000 billion, propelled by a somewhat confusing order from Hertz for 100.000 Tesla electric cars at full price (the contracts were apparently not yet signed when the extraditions began).

Big market downturns: tech giant Tesla, huge IPOs and SPACs

In general, Tesla's share price is so high because investors are betting on the company's potential. Despite its enormous success, Tesla is only at the beginning of its S-curve. Today, Tesla hits its sales targets (nearly 1 million cars sold in 2021), proving that the company can consistently generate profits. Tomorrow, the new Giga factories will help the company achieve its goal of selling 2030 million cars annually by 20 (more than a fifth of today's global auto sales).

Assuming an average price of $ 30.000 per Tesla car, a quarter of that equates to sales of $ 150 billion - a third of IDTechEx's forecast for plug-in electric cars of $ 2030 billion in 450 . This does not even take into account the growing energy business and the potential of future technologies such as autonomy. Although Tesla is also working on electric trucks, IDTechEx believes passenger cars will remain the most profitable market for electric vehicles now and in the future, and will be the main driving force behind Tesla's growth.

Tesla's successes pave the way for other companies. Rivian, which is backed by Ford and Amazon, went public at $ 2021 billion in early November 93. Hundred-year-old Ford stock has bounced itself this year, but its market cap is still below that of Rivian at $ 77,7 billion.

Rivian's traditional IPO contrasted with the SPAC trend that numerous other companies have chosen (SPACS are considered simpler and have a lower valuation risk than a traditional IPO). SPAC IPOs have spanned all types of companies, and this is no exception in the electric vehicle industry: from charging infrastructure companies (Tritium) to vehicle manufacturers (Lucid Motors, Nikola) to electric taxis (Lilium). The results were mixed - both disastrous (Nikola) and successful.

It is clear that there will still be a lot of drama about start-ups in the field of electric vehicles in 2022, as they continue to meet with great interest and trigger - unfounded or unfounded - hype about success and failure decides.

Autonomous vehicles on the rise

There have been major changes in autonomous and self-driving cars in recent years. In 2021, more Robotaxi tests started offering driverless rides to the public, e.g. B. AutoX in China, and further testing is expected to begin in 2022. Germany is now allowing level 4 driverless services on its roads, and we expect further roboshuttle projects and further trials with robotic taxis in 2022.

There have also been some breakthroughs in privately operated autonomous vehicles this year. Tesla has removed radar from its autonomous sensor technology, but is still making progress with camera-only equipment.

With the Legend, Honda has launched the first level 3 vehicle in Japan. Only 100 Honda Legends have been made available for lease, but models from other manufacturers are likely to follow in 2022. IDTechEx also anticipates the emergence of Level 3 vehicles for private use in Europe. Germany, France and England have already expressed their interest in allowing their use on public roads. This technology is likely to be introduced to the luxury market first, with the favorite being the Mercedes S-Class, which will be the first to feature this technology early next year.

The technical progress that OEMs are making in bringing Tier 3 vehicles to market is supported by the increasing sophistication of sensor technologies. Radar devices are becoming more and more powerful, and Continental and ZF will be installing the first 2022D radar devices in series vehicles in 4.

The prices for LiDAR are also falling further: Bosch told IDTechEx that its LiDAR will be available for 250 to 500 US dollars. These advances offer OEMs the robustness and performance required for a higher level of automation at a series-friendly price. The IDTechEx report “Autonomous Cars, Robotaxis & Sensors 2022-2042” predicts the spread of autonomous vehicles on various levels as well as the evolving sensor needs for every type of vehicle: cameras, radar, LiDAR and more.

Increased bets on heavy fuel cell vehicles

The prospects for the use of hydrogen fuel cells in motor vehicles are slim due to the high costs, the expensive hydrogen refueling infrastructure, which has not yet caught on, the high hydrogen prices and the questionable reduction in emissions if green hydrogen is not used. That became evident earlier this year when Honda exited the fuel cell car market. However, the range and tank advantage of fuel cell electric vehicles mean that heavy-duty applications such as long-haul trucks or high-mileage buses have long been a potential use for the technology, and advances have been made in 2021.

While the Tesla Semi is increasingly being postponed to give priority to batteries for more profitable electric cars, Hyundai announced in September 2021 that it would develop fuel cell variants for all of its commercial vehicles by 2028. Hyundai is currently conducting commercial trials in Switzerland with a fleet of 46 FCEV trucks and plans to increase this to 2025 trucks by 1.600. Hyundai also announced upcoming FCEV truck projects in the US and orders for 4.000 FCEV trucks in China.

In addition, FCEVs are also well received in the bus market: there are more than 150 fuel cell buses in operation in Europe, 65 in the USA and more than 3.000 in China. A growing backlog for FCEV buses suggests that demand is increasing, at least up to a pilot scale for testing.

The IDTechEx report "Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2022-2042" examines the use and growth of fuel cell vehicles in heavy commercial vehicles over a period of 20 years.

New technologies for electric vehicles in 2022 (not battery operated)

There are many ways to increase the range of electric vehicles. In addition to increasing battery capacity, the most important areas are power electronics (inverters, converters, chargers) and electric traction motors.

Axial flux motors

One emerging motor technology that has grown in prominence this year is axial flux motors, so named because the magnetic flux is parallel to the axis of rotation (as opposed to radial flux motors, which are perpendicular to it).

While almost the entire electric vehicle market uses some form of radial flux motors, axial flux motors offer several advantages. These include higher power and torque density and a pancake form factor that is ideal for integration into various scenarios, from cars to planes.

The technology reached a milestone in 2021. Aftermarket leader YASA closed its first major axial flux motor deal with Ferrari at the end of 2019 and was taken over by Daimler in July 2021 for use in the upcoming AMG electric platform. In July 2021, Renault also entered into a partnership with WHYLOT to use axial flux motors in its hybrid vehicles from 2025. Other innovative companies like Magnax have not yet signed any major supply contracts.

The market for axial flux motors in electric vehicles is still very small today, but IDTechEx expects a huge increase in demand over the next 10 years, with initial applications in high performance vehicles and certain hybrid applications. IDTechEx predicts in "Electric motors for electric vehicles 2022-2032" a strong increase in the demand for axial flux motors for motor vehicles.

Power electronics made from silicon carbide and sintered die-attach materials

In power electronics, the transition to silicon carbide MOSFETs and high voltage systems above 800V has accelerated in 2021.

Renault, BYD and Hyundai announced new 800V vehicle platforms that will use silicon carbide MOSFETs in their power electronics by 2025.

With the Mach E, which will hit the market at the end of 2021, Ford also has a model with silicon carbide power electronics on the market after Tesla, BYD and Toyota (Mirai).

The transition poses new challenges for the housing materials of power modules, as higher switching frequencies, higher power densities and higher operating temperatures are expected - and that with a service life of 15 years.

As the power density of electric vehicle inverters has grown exponentially over the past decade, new double-sided cooling designs, copper wire connections, and lead frames have been developed.

As the requirements for junction temperatures have increased to 175 to 200 degrees, the limits of conventional solders have paved the way for novel die attach materials.

Nanosilver and copper sintered materials have a high melting point compared to traditional lead-free tin-based solders and support high thermal temperatures above 250 degrees, facilitating the transition to high-power silicon carbide MOSFETs.

While nanosilver sintering pastes are already on the market (e.g. Argomax from Alpha), more powerful copper sintering materials are still just around the corner. Companies such as Hitachi, Showa Denko and Mitsui are demonstrating the technology and / or are in the final stages of qualification for the automotive industry.

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